Battered image haunts Rudd's visit to India
Sydney Morning Herald
Wednesday November 11, 2009
NEW DELHI: India has no shortage of suitors. The External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi's grand Raj-era government headquarters is constantly churning out media releases announcing the arrival of foreign dignitaries. With its vast consumer market and growing political clout, governments across the globe are clamouring for India's attention.Today Kevin Rudd makes his first appearance since becoming Prime Minister. He will make a lightning visit to Mumbai later today to watch a one-day cricket match between India and Australia and meet his counterpart, Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi tomorrow.Australia has more in common with India than perhaps any Asian nation. They share robust Westminster-style democracies, comparable legal systems, the English language and, of course, cricket. Both have big strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.And yet the relationship has often been neglected."Australia on its part has not taken India or the study of South Asia seriously for many years," says an Australian National University India expert, Professor Sandy Gordon. "This has translated in a whole lot of subtle ways into a sometimes ignorant and often uncaring attitude to India and South Asia, including among leading Australian officials. Thankfully this attitude has been reversed in recent years, but its residue persists."The Rudd Government came to office vowing to put India at the "front rank" of its diplomatic relationships. But amid the lofty rhetoric there has been a series of setbacks. Only a few months ago Hindu nationalists burnt an effigy of Mr Rudd outside the Australian high commission in protest at the spate of attacks on Indian students studying in Australia. Feelings are still high about the assaults.Last week demonstrators outside a one-day cricket match between Australia and India held signs saying "Racist Australians go back".The placards highlight how Mr Rudd arrives in New Delhi at a delicate time for relations between the two countries. Two early foreign policy decisions raised questions in New Delhi about his approach.One was Labor's refusal to lift a long-standing ban on uranium exports to India because New Delhi is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This reversed a Howard government decision to allow uranium exports under certain conditions.The second early irritant was Labor's decision to walk away from the so-called quadrilateral dialogue involving New Delhi, Tokyo, Washington and Canberra.Beijing implacably opposed the grouping, and the Foreign Affairs Minister, Stephen Smith, revealed his Government was stepping back from it while standing next to the Chinese foreign minister. This played badly in New Delhi and created a perception that the Mandarin-speaking Mr Rudd was more interested in strengthening ties with China than India."Kevin Rudd began on a wrong note," says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi."He created a perception of being a panda-hugging leader. His refusal to sell uranium to India reinforced that impression because uranium sales to India would be under stringent international conditions, while uranium sold to China has no international safeguards of any kind."India's status as a nuclear weapons power was transformed last year when a nuclear co-operation deal between Washington and Delhi allowed India access to the global nuclear trade despite its refusal to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. India's new standing has made Australia's position on uranium sales more difficult to defend. Professor Chellaney says Australia's reasons for not selling uranium to India are "specious".The recent chill between Canberra and Beijing over issues such as the arrest of the Australian mining executive Stern Hu has not convinced Delhi's foreign policy elite that things have really shifted."There is still a view in Delhi that Australia weighs things up very carefully before they decide to do anything that may bother China," says Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a foreign policy commentator in Delhi. "New Delhi will want to get a feel for what Rudd's views are on China."Rory Medcalf, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, says progress in the Australia-India relationship has been uneven and in some areas disappointing since Mr Rudd came to power."In 2007, just before Rudd got in, you would have said energy, education and defence were three big pillars of the Australia-India relationship that were moving ahead really well. Two years later uranium is on hold, foreign students has gone through a crisis and the defence relationship, although going well in terms of dialogue, hasn't had much progress on joint exercises and other practical matters. All three of those pillars were looking better two years ago."But the news is not all bad. Analysts from both countries say there is great potential for the relationship to leap ahead.Australian goods and services exports to India have risen at an annual average of more than 30 per cent over the past five years, outstripping even those to China. India is now the fifth biggest market for Australian goods and services exports, and is rapidly moving to become our third largest export market.The potential of India's consumer market was underscored last week when the number of mobile phone subscribers reached 500 million.As with many other Asian trading partners, minerals and energy dominate Australia's exports to India. It is the biggest buyer of Australian gold and the third largest coal and copper customer.There is a growing recognition in New Delhi that Australia could play a crucial role in its future energy security. The importance of energy exports in the trade relationship was on display in August, when India's Petronet signed a $20 billion deal with Exxon-Mobil to supply liquefied natural gas from the Gorgon project in Western Australia to India over 20 years. This was the first long-term gas contract between the two countries.Indian resource companies are making significant investments in the Australian minerals and petroleum resources sectors.Services exports to India have also been growing strongly thanks to the boom in education. However, publicity about attacks on Indians is likely to take a heavy toll on enrolments, especially in the short term.India is Australia's second fastest-growing tourism market, and the number of Indian visitors is projected to grow at an average annual rate of nearly 20 per cent over the next decade.In 2007 the two governments began a study into the merits of a free-trade agreement but progress has been slow. More than two years after the study began, the two governments said last month that they were working towards an "early finalisation" of the report. Mr Rudd may have more to say about progress during his visit.But trade alone does not constitute a close relationship.Lifting the ban on uranium exports would be a magic bullet to dramatically improve relations. But there is no sign that Mr Rudd is going to reverse Labor's long-standing position.He will continue Australia's diplomatic charm offensive to try to limit the damage caused by the attacks on Indian students in Australia. The visit follows trips by his deputy, Julia Gillard, in September and Mr Smith last month.Mr Medcalf published a paper yesterday calling for India and Australia to develop a much closer strategic partnership."The relationship will weather recent turbulence. But without major diplomatic initiatives soon, the prospects for a truly strategic partnership between these Indian Ocean democracies will be set back for years."Defence ties have greatly improved in recent years, but Mr Medcalf says that has not translated into practical co-operation like regular joint exercises.The mutual interest India and Australia have in the Indian Ocean has the potential to drive closer strategic co-operation.Mr Rudd's visit comes at a crucial time. With so many countries demanding a hearing in New Delhi, if Mr Rudd is not now able to take steps forward in the bilateral relationship, it will only become more difficult for Australia to forge closer ties with India as it takes its place as a big world power.
© 2009 Sydney Morning Herald
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